Greg Weldon on What’s Driving Gold & Where it’s Headed

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Gregory Thomas Weldon is in his 31st year observing and analyzing the global financial markets.

His pedigree includes a trial-by-fire introduction to the industry spending three-years as the point-man in the COMEX Gold and Silver pits for one of the largest COMEX Gold and Silver floor brokers of the 1970’s and 80’s, Stanley B. Bell and Company.

He left the floor upon the introduction of US stock index futures and international bond futures markets in Europe, and went to work as an institutional broker for Lehman Brothers.

It was at Lehman where Greg met broker-turned-trader Louis Moore Bacon and shortly thereafter left Lehman when Moore Capital was formed. At Moore, under the tutelage of Louis and Zack Bacon, Greg really honed his skills as a trader, purveyor of macro-markets and portfolio-risk manager.

After profitably managing ‘in-house’ money at Moore Capital, Greg made the move to the birthplace of many great traders of that era including Louis Bacon’s mentor, Paul Tudor Jones, Commodities Corporation, where he spent two years as one of the firm’s top performing risk-adjusted traders.

When Goldman Sachs bought out the partnership of Commodities Corporation in 1997, Greg started Weldon Financial, and launched “Weldon’s Money Monitor”, and “The Metal Monitor”, products that have more recently evolved into the all-encompassing “WeldonLIVE (with TradeLAB).” Greg has successfully navigated some of the most treacherous markets in history, most often guiding clients into macro-market trends and profitable trading strategies, repeatedly, year-after-year, over the 18-year history of producing top-shelf, thought provoking, global-macro market research.

Indeed, Greg authored the book “Gold Trading Boot Camp”, published in November of 2006, in which he very accurately predicted that the US credit markets would implode, that the Fed would purchase trillions of dollars of US government debt, and that Gold prices would more than double from their then-level of $550 per ounce. In fact, most everything Greg predicted would happen happened. Moreover, “Gold Trading Boot Camp” is also a “how-to” manual offering insights into the ‘job’ of trading the futures markets.

Greg has appeared on most every financial-focused television channel, and has been a regular in the past on several specific financial market television shows. Greg does the occasional radio interview, and offers customized, in-depth, comprehensive financial market conference presentations and speeches that leave his audience abuzz with a feeling of high-energy, and an abundance of factual information.

 

Greg’s Website & Subscription Information 

WeldonOnline.com

Weldon Live Subscription Information

Twitter: @WeldonLive

 

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Interview: Long-Term Gold Chart is Very Exciting Above $1400

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Jordan discusses his latest article where he points out that the signs are close for declaring a new bull market. The indicators are all showing positive. Both GDX and GDXJ have surged above their long term moving averages. We still need to rally up to and break resistance levels but we are close and the evidence is mounting. Lastly, he is looking for the ratio of gold compared to the stock markets to rise which is a classic bull market sign.

Time Stamp References:

[1:20] – Jordan discusses his latest analysis.

[2:40] – Gold needs to re-test resistance levels.

[5:10] – Basing period and potential upward potential.

[7:00] – Long-term gold chart is very exciting.

[8:50] – Watch for a breakout.

[11:00] – Risks of being a contrarian.

[16:30] – Bull Market is almost confirmed.

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Interview: You Can Still Find Quality Stocks That Have Not Made Big Moves Yet

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Jordan Roy-Byrne of TheDailyGold.com is well-known for his commentary on the gold market. In this interview, Jordan shares not only his thoughts on where gold is headed but also regarding how he approaches junior gold stock investing. Jordan provides an overview profile of his ideal junior gold stock, offers his commentary on mining jurisdictions he prefers, the state of junior mining finance and more.

[0:05] Introduction

[1:45] Where is gold headed?

[7:45] What are gold stocks telegraphing about the direction of the gold price?

[10:30] Did Jordan accurately time gold’s Dec 2015/Jan 2016 bottom?

[15:36] What is the ideal profile of a junior gold stock investment?

[20:46] Commentary on gold optionality plays

[23:24] What mining jurisdictions does Jordan focus on?

[25:46] Jordan’s thoughts on the current state of junior mining finance.

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Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template

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Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”

We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.

The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.

The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.

Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.

The housing sector declined 81% from its peak in 2005 to the market bottom in March 2009. Then it rebounded 137% before correcting 42% over 18 months. The correction ended with a false new low.

 

The S&P 500 crashed nearly 90% over a nearly three year period. Then it rebounded 177% before correcting for 20 months. That correction also ended in a false new low.

 

Thailand from 1994 through 2000 is quite similar to the gold stocks from 2011 through 2016. Before its 200% move higher from 2002 through 2003, Thailand corrected 54% over a 2-year and 5-month period.

Note that its final low at the end of 2001 could have been a false new low if not for the initial sharp correction down to L1.

 

The template for a recovery from a mega bear market is as follows.

Following the bear market low, a sharp rally begins that lasts only six to twelve months. Then the market endures a significant correction that lasts a minimum of 18 months and ends with a breakdown to new lows (which ends up being a false move).

Then the major wave higher begins.

Here is the data on those three examples, another one (Mortgage sector) and the gold stocks (GDX).

 

Note how the time between the bear market bottom and the correction low (for the gold stocks) is almost identical to three of the four examples. Also, note how the second leg higher surpassed the initial rebound in each example (ex S&P 500).

Here is how GDX stacks up (visually) with the others. Its rebound (and potentially second leg higher) began after the false breakdown in September.

Last week we asked the question whether gold stocks would correct or consolidate in a bullish fashion. The evidence now favors a bullish consolidation. As a result, we are looking at potential near-term upside targets of $1350-$1360 for Gold, $25 for GDX and $37 for GDXJ.

The short-term trend is healthy and this historical comparison is table-pounding bullish. We’ve been increasing our exposure and will continue to do so. Plenty of great values remain and there is time to position yourself to take advantage. To learn what stocks we are buying and think have 3x to 5x potential consider learning more about our premium service.  

 

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TheDailyGold Premium Update #609

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The 29-page update was published and emailed to subscribers in Saturday afternoon.

In this update we include a report on a mid-cap company that we think has 3x-4x upside should the sector make a breakout in the next 12-18 months. We share two calculations to arrive at that upside target.

We also include comments on a stock we own that we think currently is perhaps one of the cheapest juniors we can find with the most upside. It boasts value, optionality and strong exploration potential.

 

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Interview: Insight into Gold, S&P 500, US dollar & Gold/S&P 500 Ratio

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Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold shares his insights on how the US markets and USD are holding the PM prices in check. He outlines what needs to happen for gold to break to the upside. We also spend some time on the gold to US markets and gold to silver charts.

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Interview: What Will Drive the Next Big Bull Run

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In this video I talked with Jordan Roy-Byrne who runs the website thedailygold.com to get his take on what is happening now with gold prices on the technical analysis charts. The price of gold is above $1300 and is dealing with a long-term resistance zone in the $1330-$1350 area. Jordan revealed what the catalyst will be that will take gold prices through those levels and create a massive bull run as the stock market masses begin to chase things up as they always do.

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Shop Small: South 40 Snacks

“Shop small”. Those two words are the battle cry of the little guys and girls in the business world. It is the mantra of companies that wage a daily battle to find unique ways to pit their services and products against those of the big chain and box stores.

The efforts of these smaller competitors seem to be working. As consumers, it seems more and more, we have that pang of guilt within us when we knowingly bypass the local start-up or long standing Mom n’ Pop location in favor of the large grocer or department store.

from bryansteven https://blog.justbats.com/south-40-snacks

Key Support Levels for Gold Miners & Gold Juniors

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Gold stocks have to do more to confirm they are in a new bull market.

Sure, they’ve surged above key moving average resistance and breadth has improved.

However, the gold stocks have not yet broken the pattern of lower highs and breadth, while improved, is not at bull market levels yet. Let’s review where things currently stand.

In recent weeks GDX and GDXJ surged above the critical 400-day moving average which has been an excellent indicator of the primary trend dating back to 2012. That’s positive and hasn’t happened since the summer of 2017.  

GDX (top), GDXJ (bottom)

 

Moving forward, I see two plausible scenarios for the gold stocks.

They are either going to build a bullish consolidation (as I’ve sketched out below) or they will have a longer and deeper retracement which could lead to a test of the 200-day moving averages (not shown) near $20.50 for GDX and $30 for GDXJ.

GDX (top), GDXJ (bottom)

 

 

In the bullish scenario, look for the miners to hold above their 400-day moving averages and build a tight consolidation. If that develops, we would gain strong confidence in a bullish outcome.

In the bearish scenario, the miners would sell off below recent lows and threaten a test of the 200-day moving averages and the nearby open gaps.

Also, keep an eye on Silver, which like the miners will outperform when the sector trend is established. Note that on Thursday Silver bounced from the $15.60-$15.65/oz level which has been a critical level over the past two years. (See the arrows in the chart).

Should Silver hold that low then it should be able to rally above its 400-day moving average for the first time in over a year and test $17.25.

Silver

 

At the bottom of the chart we plot Silver against the S&P 500 and according to the 200-day moving average, that relative trend has turned in favor of Silver.

The bottom line is if GDX, GDXJ and Silver can maintain the lows from last week and firm up against the S&P 500 then they are likely going higher. If those lows break convincingly then look for a longer and deeper correction.

Essentially, should a bullish consolidation develop, we will prepare to put more capital to work. If not, then a deeper and longer correction is more likely which means we can be patient. To prepare yourself for some epic buying opportunities in junior gold and silver stocks before this bull market really gets going, consider learning more about our premium service.

 

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